Fwd: Crimean crisis points to Russia, US space interdependence

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From: "Gary Johnson" <gjohnson144@comcast.net>
Date: March 7, 2014 9:59:40 AM CST
To: "Gary Johnson" <gjohnson144@comcast.net>
Subject: FW: Crimean crisis points to Russia, US space interdependence

 

 

Crimean crisis points to Russia, US space interdependence

Mar. 6, 2014 11:10 PM   |  

 

Written by
James Dean
FLORIDA TODAY

NASA this week said its relationship with the Russian space agency continues as usual, including preparations to land an astronaut and two cosmonauts on Monday and to launch another crew from Kazakhstan two weeks later.

Russian spacecraft are the only rides available to NASA astronauts flying to and from the International Space Station this month, and likely for several years to come.

But space program ties between the countries run much deeper: Launch of a U.S. reconnaissance satellite from Cape Canaveral later this month will rely on a Russian engine, while another American rocket that launches ISS cargo uses a booster from Ukraine and refurbished Soviet engines.

The ongoing diplomatic crisis between Moscow and Washington over Russia's actions in Ukraine has highlighted U.S. dependence on Russia and the region for access to space, raising concerns about potential disruptions to launches of ISS crews and cargo or national security satellites.

"We are in kind of a rock and a hard place in the space program at this point," said Roger Handberg, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida. "Space is a secondary thought in this but yes, we are very vulnerable to having something go bad. It all is going to depend on how the politicians sort it out."

Unless the situation worsens considerably, several experts said it's unlikely Russia would use space assets for political leverage, given the money and prestige it would put at risk, or that a U.S. response might include pulling astronauts from training in Star City, Russia.

NASA this week said its relationship with the Russian space agency continues as usual, including preparations to land an astronaut and two cosmonauts on Monday and to launch another crew from Kazakhstan two weeks later.

"People lose track of the fact that we have occupied the International Space Station now for 13 consecutive years uninterrupted, and that has been through multiple international crises," NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden said this week. "We will go into contingency planning for that as the situation dictates, but right now, we don't see any reason to be doing so."

Orbital Sciences Corp., whose Antares rocket booster is produced by Ukrainian companies, also is closely monitoring the situation there, a spokesman said. Orbital already has the boosters for its next three ISS resupply missions and the engines, built decades ago in the Soviet Union and modernized in the U.S., for seven more missions.

Meanwhile, United Launch Alliance's Atlas V rocket, which flies the most important, high value military satellites and NASA science missions, uses an RD-180 main engine supplied by a Russian company.

During a Senate hearing this week about introducing competition for those launches, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said the Atlas V should be phased out to eliminate a potential security vulnerability.

"In light of Russia's de facto annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region, and the formal severing of military ties, the Atlas V cannot possibly be described as providing assured access to space for our nation, when supply of the main engine depends on President Putin's permission," Musk testified.

ULA CEO Michael Gass said his company, a Boeing-Lockheed Martin joint venture, has a two-year supply of RD-180 engines and the capability to produce them domestically if necessary. The company also flies Delta IV rockets.

Two of the three companies competing to launch astronauts to the station on commercial spacecraft (excluding SpaceX) also plan to use the Atlas V.

But the reliance on Russia for rocket engine technology and human access to space is not as one-sided as it might at first appear, experts say.

The $70 million NASA pays for each astronaut's seat on a Soyuz spacecraft, and purchases of RD-180 engines, are valued, perhaps irreplaceable sources of revenue to Russia's space industry and leadership.

"They really are about as good friends as money can rent," said James Oberg, a former shuttle mission controller and now space analyst for NBC News. "A lot of people in power in Moscow are making a lot of money off of the U.S. payments, and they can be counted on to put the arm on Putin not to mess with the cash flow."

Denying use of the RD-180 engine for U.S. defense missions, as some Russian lawmakers threatened last year, would only accelerate development of an alternative that would cripple its manufacturer.

NASA must buy Soyuz seats now, but that money could disappear as soon as 2017, if new commercial vehicles are ready on time. And while Russia is now the sole provider of crew transportation, it relies on U.S. power and communications systems to run its segment of the space station.

"The fundamental reason that I don't see any interference is simply a mutual co-dependence on the ISS, however reluctant and awkward it may seem," Oberg said. "They'd be far worse off with only their part of the ISS than we would be without Soyuz, in terms of how quickly we could replace the function."

In addition to money, the ISS and other space technology bestows a national prestige that is important to Russia, just as hosting the recent Winter Olympics in Sochi was, said Anatoly Zak, the New Jersey-based editor of RussianSpaceWeb.com and author of "Russia in Space."

Like Bolden, he noted that the space station program has survived numerous past conflicts, including Russia's 2008 invasion of Georgia and its strong opposition to the Iraq War, and Russia has met its commitments throughout.

"Unless the situation escalates further — which it can — I don't see any chance that they would use space as a bargaining chip," said Zak.

 

Contact Dean at 321-242-3668 or jdean@floridatoday.com.

 

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