| | JSC TODAY CATEGORIES - Headlines
- Last Chance! CFC Ends Tomorrow, Jan. 15
- New Process to Reserve Teague Begins Now
- Recent JSC Announcement - Organizations/Social
- Freedom Pay Discontinued in Cafés
- Leading Through Adversity - RSVP NOW!
- Env. Brown Bag: New Green Space for Clear Lake
- Space Serenity Al-Anon Meeting Today
- Starport League Sports
- Parent's Night Out at Starport - Jan. 24
- INCOSE Local Chapter Meeting Jan. 16 - Jobs and Training
- Extended TDY FedTraveler Live Lab - Jan. 15
- Occupational Medicine at JSC
- Relief Valve Set Testing and Hydrostatic Testing |  |
| Headlines - Last Chance! CFC Ends Tomorrow, Jan. 15
Tomorrow, Jan. 15, is your last opportunity to participate in the JSC 2013 Combined Federal Campaign (CFC). Please take a minute to visit the JSC CFC website to view the Agency Charity Guide, find your organization's point of contact or obtain a paper form for your one-time cash or check donation. Every Dollar Makes a Difference -- No Matter How Large or Small! Thank you for your continued, wholehearted and generous support of the JSC CFC. - New Process to Reserve Teague Begins Now
There is a new method to request the reservation of the Building 2S Teague Auditorium and/or lobby: Send an email request to the primary contact, Ashley M. Rapson, or alternate, Scott J. Collins. If there is a problem contacting these action officers, then contact the facility manager at 713-501-1719 or 281-244-1336. JSC External Relations, Office of Communications and Public Affairs x35111
[top] - Recent JSC Announcement
Please visit the JSC Announcements (JSCA) Web page to view the newly posted announcement: JSCA 14-001: Key Personnel Assignment - Edward B. Wilson Archived announcements are also available on the JSCA Web page. Organizations/Social - Freedom Pay Discontinued in Cafés
Freedom Pay (offered in both cafés) will be discontinued and replaced with a new "SoGo" system. These systems are not compatible, so all users of Freedom Pay should use up remaining balance and not re-load accounts. Sorry for any inconvenience this causes, but we look forward to serving you in the future with the new system. - Leading Through Adversity - RSVP NOW!
Want to know how to lead through adversity? Don't miss the Jan. 22 JSC National Management Association (NMA) luncheon featuring Commander Scott Langum, who is with the United States Coast Guard.
When: Wednesday, Jan. 22
Time: 11:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.
Location: Gilruth Alamo Ballroom
Cost for members: FREE
Cost for non-members: $20
Attendees can select from three great menu options: - Grilled chicken salad
- Cheese manicotti with two sauces
- Brown sugar rubbed pork loin
Desserts include double chocolate mousse cake and Italian cream cake.
RSVPs are required by 3 p.m. TOMORROW, Jan. 15, so RSVP now! - Env. Brown Bag: New Green Space for Clear Lake
Exploration Green is a new public green space providing a 200-acre flood control, conservation and recreation facility in the heart of the Clear Lake area. The long-term project will turn the former Clear Lake Golf Course into a large floodwater detention area that has about 80 acres of water and wetlands; native trees, shrubs and grasses; hike/bike trails and athletic fields; and environmental education programs. In partnership with the Galveston Bay Foundation, Exploration Green will be protected from non-environmental development. You can visit the area for hiking and biking now on a six-mile trail, and you can volunteer in many ways, including care for young native trees and plants. Come to Building 45, Room 751, today, Jan. 14, from noon to 1 p.m. to hear how this new space will benefit you. - Space Serenity Al-Anon Meeting Today
"Progress, not perfection" reminds Al-Anon members to remember to be patient in the face of disruption and change. Our 12-step meeting is for co-workers, families and friends of those who work or live with the family disease of alcoholism. We meet Tuesday, Jan. 14, in Building 32, Room 146, from 11 to 11:45 a.m. Visitors are welcome. - Starport League Sports
Come join the Starport Athletics adult sport leagues. We offer a plethora of leagues that range from men's and co-ed softball to dodgeball. Come check us out! Right now we are offering a discounted rate for our whole spring season registration. Hurry and take advantage of this great deal. - Parent's Night Out at Starport - Jan. 24
Enjoy a night out on the town while your kids enjoy a night with Starport! We will entertain your children with a night of games, crafts, a bounce house, pizza, a movie, dessert and loads of fun. When: Friday, Jan. 24, from 6 to 10 p.m. Where: Gilruth Center Ages: 5 to 12 Cost: $20/first child and $10/each additional sibling if registered by the Wednesday prior to event. If registered after Wednesday, the fee is $25/first child and $15/additional sibling. - INCOSE Local Chapter Meeting Jan. 16
This month's INCOSE Texas Gulf Coast Chapter will meet to discuss this coming year's agenda and introduce the 2014 local chapter board members. Join us and make your voice heard. Tell us what you would like to see done this coming year and what program subjects interest you. Give us an earful! The Jan. 16 meeting will be held at the Lockheed Martin Martin Orion Conference Center (2625 Bay Area Blvd., Houston [Clear Lake], first floor). Networking and refreshments begin at 5:30 p.m. The program begins at 6 p.m. We need you there! Please RSVP to Larry Spratlin if you would like refreshments so we know how much to order. More information about us is available on our local chapter website. Jobs and Training - Extended TDY FedTraveler Live Lab - Jan. 15
Do you need some hands-on, personal help with FedTraveler.com? Join the Business Systems and Process Improvement Office for an Extended TDY FedTraveler Live Lab tomorrow, Jan. 15, any time between 9 a.m. and noon in Building 12, Room 142. Our help desk representatives will be available to help you work through Extended TDY travel processes and learn more about using FedTraveler during this informal workshop. Bring your current travel documents or specific questions that you have about the system and join us for some hands-on, in-person help with FedTraveler. If you'd like to sign up for this Extended TDY FedTraveler Live Lab, please log into SATERN and register. For additional information, please contact Judy Seier at x32771. To register in SATERN, please click on this SATERN direct link: https://satern.nasa.gov/learning/user/deeplink_redirect.jsp?linkId=SCHEDULED_... - Occupational Medicine at JSC
- Relief Valve Set Testing and Hydrostatic Testing
This course covers the fundamentals and requirements regarding hydrostatic testing of pressure vessels and pressure systems and pressure relief valve set-testing. Course objectives include: - Define Designated Verifier (DV)
- Test area guidelines
- References: JPR 1710.13, NS-PRS-009, NT-QAS-024
- Safety guidelines
- Procedures
Re-certification required every two years. Note: This is the FINAL class for Fiscal Year 2013. Date/Time: Jan. 28 from 8 a.m. to noon CST Where: Safety Learning Center, Building 20, Room 205/206 Registration via SATERN required: | |
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| JSC Today is compiled periodically as a service to JSC employees on an as-submitted basis. Any JSC organization or employee may submit articles. Disclaimer: Accuracy and content of these notes are the responsibility of the submitters. |
NASA and Human Spaceflight News
Tuesday – Jan. 14, 2014
HEADLINES AND LEADS
International Space Station is good for another 10 years and great for Las Cruces
Pat Hynes - Las Cruces Sun-News
The year 2014 started off with an especially positive announcement for our community. NASA announced the extension of the orbiting outpost through 2024.
Praise for the MAF transition ahead of SLS production
NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden gained an close up and personal look at the ever-changing face of the famous Michoud Assembly Facility (MAF) on Monday. The former birthplace of Saturn stages and Shuttle External Tanks is ramping up towards its new role, producing the giant core stages for the Space Launch System (SLS).
Doing the right thing when it's steamboat time
John Strickland – The Space Review
When its steamboat time, you steamboat." – Mark Twain.
On January 2, Former NASA Deputy Administrator Lori Garver told the plain and simple truth when she said on a radio interview show, "The SLS [Space Launch System] was something that Congress dictated to NASA. It's $3 billion a year of NASA's $17 billion. Is that how you would be investing in the space program? Where is it going to go? When will it even fly?" This must have come as a shock to SLS loyalists, but most of them are not aware of the innovative technology development programs that she championed, many of which withered as funds were redirected to SLS. The statement has created another storm of controversy within the space community. Lori realizes that it is "Steamboat Time" for the reusable rocket.
Four more years
The US announces plans to extend the life of the ISS to at least 2024. Will its international partners follow suit?
Jeff Foust – The Space Review
While Washington politics is often criticized for short-term thinking, it does have some ability to look to the (relatively) long term. Since last year, there's been plenty of discussion about 2016; specifically, who might decide to run for President and what their chances of winning the White House might be, even though the first primaries and caucuses are still two years away. That was certainly the case last week, as pundits weighed the effects of events on the as-yet-unannounced candidacies of various political figures.
Tapping into the IT cloud crowd
Matthew Wall – BBC News
Two heads are better than one, they say. Well, how about 600,000? That's how many designers and programmers you have on tap when you use a crowdsourcing service such as Appirio.
SpaceX snags deal to launch Japanese telecom satellite
Stephen Clark – Spaceflight Now
Fresh off back-to-back launches of commercial communications satellites, SpaceX has booked a Japanese payload for a Falcon 9 flight in late 2015 likely to be launched from Cape Canaveral.
Manned Mission to Mars By 2030s Is Really Possible, Experts Say
Sending humans to Mars by the 2030s is affordable, a group of experts finds, but some key changes are needed if it is going to happen.
COMPLETE STORIES
International Space Station is good for another 10 years and great for Las Cruces
Pat Hynes - Las Cruces Sun-News
The year 2014 started off with an especially positive announcement for our community. NASA announced the extension of the orbiting outpost through 2024.
Why does this matter to our community? NASA White Sands Test Facility (NASA WSTF) is a support facility for the International Space Station (ISS). NASA WSTF does failure analysis on micro-meteoroid orbital debris impacts, for example. In English, they look at what happens to materials in space should they get hit by orbiting debris, a screw or a even paint chip. They also work on oxygen systems, and life support system analysis for station. For the readers who saw the movie Gravity, when Sandra Bullock called NASA, the communications come through the NASA site.
Some of the students I have worked with now work at NASA WSTF. Jeremy Brugerman is one who comes to mind. He started working on a technology at NMSU that measures momentum of an orbiting body. It is not something the average person needs to know in everyday life. If you are living and working in space, it is essential information if you want to get resupplied from earth.
Testing the initial design of the dishwasher-size instrument meant a trip to Ellington Field and a flight on the Johnson Space Center's Zero Gravity C-135 aircraft. This one sentence sums up a year of work in the lab, a proposal by the team to NASA, and a two day flight opportunity for four students. At the time we worked together, Jeremy was a Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering student. NASA WSTF colleagues periodically advise this group of engineers called the Flying Aggies. Fast forward four years, Jeremy has graduated and now works at WSTF. The members of his team, now led by graduate Gerardo Martinez, flew this instrument in November out a the spaceport through the NASA Flight Opportunities Program. It's two parts fit into a 9-inch wide, 20-inch tall can.
What does the technology do? It measures the momentum of a body from within the body, while it is in the weightless state. It is pretty hard to do. If we want to keep a body like the ISS orbiting, periodically it has to be boosted using small engines on the station. It is desirable to have very accurate information on the amount of thrust needed to keep the station in orbit, and desirable to use the least amount of energy possible. If the instrument works, it can save fuel by providing more accurate information on the momentum of ISS.
Does this technology perform or enable a task or function to be executed better or cheaper or both? Well, it might. Is there a need for the technology? Yep. Should we continue to investigate? Yes. The students still working on this project have the opportunity to fly it again, out at the spaceport. Jeremy at NASA WSTF is still engaged with the team, and now students from Mayfield High School are also volunteering on this team. Gerardo is a graduate of Mayfield, and he determined to get more students involved in this project.
Another group of engineering students just completed building radio antennae at NMSU that they will use to track small satellites in low earth orbit. The antennae can track the ISS right now. These students were part of a capstone class which involved electrical, mechanical and computer science students at NMSU. University students are preparing for adulthood. Not all students are interested in space, but this is my business so it is my job to make sure students have access to rich experiences. Faculty at NMSU do the majority of the work helping and teaching students, but having Space Grant as a partner, along with NASA WSTF, this is a big deal for all of us.
The public school students and faculty have yet to take advantage of all the assets in the community to realize the potential of the space industry. We are getting closer, but the district must take on the challenge of creating access to space related science, technology and engineering curriculum. It is time, and necessary. The capability exists within our community to assist the Las Cruces Public School District. They need the will and leadership to focus on space science, technology and engineering. The movie Gravity may have given you enough of a sense, humans will continue to live in space, and Las Crucens have a growing role in making it happen.
Praise for the MAF transition ahead of SLS production
NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden gained an close up and personal look at the ever-changing face of the famous Michoud Assembly Facility (MAF) on Monday. The former birthplace of Saturn stages and Shuttle External Tanks is ramping up towards its new role, producing the giant core stages for the Space Launch System (SLS).
MAF Transition:
The New Orleans facility has a rich history, one that ranges back as far the 1940s, when it began life building planes and landing craft for American forces during World War II, before switching its focus to building engines for Sherman and Patton tanks for use during the Korean War.
Entering the rocket business in 1961, NASA tasked the facility with the construction of first stages for the Saturn IB and Saturn V launch vehicles, prior to their shipment by barge to the Kennedy Space Center (KSC).
Undergoing a similar transition to what it is today, Michoud had its attention switched to the construction and assembly of the Shuttle External Tanks.
The first of the 136 tanks, ET-1 for STS-1, rolled out of the door in June, 1979 - one of only two tanks to have its thermal protection system foam covered in white paint.
The MAF workforce fought through various challenges, not least the Return To Flight effort, after one of their tanks shed foam from its bipod ramp, critically injuring Columbia during her ill-fated STS-107 launch, before Hurricane Katrina ravaged the local area, personally impacting on almost all of the MAF employees.
Despite this, the workers managed to keep the ET schedule on track, even returning one tank back into the mix. ET-122 was set to fly earlier in the program, before being damaged by Katrina. It successfully flew on STS-134 with Endeavour.
However, by the time the Shuttle Program was slowing down, the workforce already knew the promise of transitioning their careers into the Constellation Program (CxP) were dashed.
As as result of CxP's eventual cancellation, the vast majority of the MAF workforce were laid off as the final External Tank headed out into the Gulf of Mexico.
A large number of workers could have seen their careers saved, had it not been for the delays in implementing the plan for a Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLV),outlined in the 2010 Authorization Act as the flagship of a realigned exploration program.
The impact to the facility was severe, as only a small group of skilled workers remained, spending their days removing equipment to make way for a line of Hollywood production companies to use the wide open floor space to film scenes for movies.
However, the dawn of the new era is now starting to rise out of the ground at MAF, with work on various commercial projects, its role in giving birth to the Orion spacecraft and Lockheed Martin's use of the facility in constructing the Dream Chaser fleet.
By far the largest project, the installation of giant machines to build the SLS cores is progressing to plan.
This latest transition was seen in person by General Bolden – along with Senator David Vitter of Louisiana – during a tour of the facility on Monday.
Modification and construction projects are taking place in Buildings 103, 110, 114, 115, 131 and 451 at the giant facility, but the tour focused on the Vertical Assembly Center (VAB), where the 27.5-foot diameter cylinders, domes, rings and other elements will be brought together to form the fuel tanks and core stage of SLS.
MAF's Vertical Assembly Center will be home to one of the largest welding tools of its kind and is scheduled to be completed in March of this year.
"American astronauts are living and working in space aboard the International Space Station, preparing for deeper space exploration and the SLS is the rocket that will take them there," noted the General during the tour.
"We're making tremendous progress on SLS, and I salute the team at Michoud for making sure the United States continues to lead the world in exploration."
General Bolden also got to view Building 103, where Michoud's main manufacturing building – encompassing 42 acres under its roof – is welcoming the Robotic Weld Tool 3.
The Circumferential Dome Weld and Gore Weld tools will be used on the RWT-3 to make dome components for SLS. The machine will be known as the Enhanced Robotic Weld Tool when in operation.
Specifically, the Circumferential Dome Weld Tool will be used to perform circumferential friction stir welds in the production of dome assemblies for the SLS core stage cryogenic tanks, whereas the Gore Weld Tool will perform vertical conventional friction stir welds in the production of gore assemblies – preformed aluminum alloy dome segments – for the SLS core stage tanks.
Meanwhile, the new Vertical Weld Center is a friction-stir-weld tool for wet and dry structures on the SLS core stage. This tool will weld barrel panels together to produce whole barrels for the two pressurized tanks, the Intertank, the Forward Skirt and the Aft Engine Section. It stands about three stories tall and weighs 150 tons.
"The Space Launch System is becoming a reality thanks to the unique workforce and tools at Michoud and NASA facilities across the country," added SLS Program Manager Todd May, who joined Bolden on the tour.
"We're on schedule and looking forward to SLS's first launch."
Doing the right thing when it's steamboat time
John Strickland – The Space Review
When its steamboat time, you steamboat." – Mark Twain.
On January 2, Former NASA Deputy Administrator Lori Garver told the plain and simple truth when she said on a radio interview show, "The SLS [Space Launch System] was something that Congress dictated to NASA. It's $3 billion a year of NASA's $17 billion. Is that how you would be investing in the space program? Where is it going to go? When will it even fly?" This must have come as a shock to SLS loyalists, but most of them are not aware of the innovative technology development programs that she championed, many of which withered as funds were redirected to SLS. The statement has created another storm of controversy within the space community. Lori realizes that it is "Steamboat Time" for the reusable rocket.
Some of the opponents of the SLS still confuse the main issue when they attack the SLS because it is "big." This is like the "small is beautiful" mantra: totally false since it does not discriminate between good and bad things that are large, like a big beautiful mountain. The main problem with the SLS, even putting aside the cost of the horrendously inefficient development methods, is that it is expendable. While it is true that the Falcon Heavy could handle any planned government programs for the next decade, why should activities in the space arena be restricted to what NASA planners can imagine? Those same planners have been resisting the concept of reusable rockets and reusable in-space vehicles since before the Delta Clipper first flew more than 20 years ago. Garver showed that she has the imagination when she first pointed out that the problem with NASA is not a low budget, but instead that the available money is being spent on the wrong things; and then that we should only go back to the Moon if there is a specific purpose or reason to do so.
| The main problem with the SLS, even putting aside the cost of the horrendously inefficient development methods, is that it is expendable. |
Some in the space community are still trying to face the reality of the "Reusable Rocket Revolution," and are finding it hard to see that it is real and should now be embraced as the best path to space. Such dilemmas between the old and the new have been faced by people for hundreds of years and they do not always come out smelling like roses. When steamboats were first invented in the late 1700s, they were the first manmade inanimate objects to move under their own power, unlike wagons, rowboats, and sailing ships. At the time, the top inventors and statesmen in the world thought steamboats were impossible. Once the commercial viability of steamboats was established in the early 1800s, there was a rush to build them, and soon there were hundreds of them operating on rivers all over the US. They gave the US a shipping advantage over Great Britain that lasted until the 1830s. Yet the first successful steamboat built by John Fitch only ran one season, since Fitch's investors would not fund the needed repairs for the next summer season on the Delaware River. Even after the boat went thousands of miles back and forth along the Delaware, the businessmen could just not see the potential. Later investors made vast fortunes, owning entire fleets of steamboats.
In the early 1800s, keelboats were the main means of transport down the Mississippi to New Orleans. Once the cargo of cotton or lumber was unloaded, the keelboat was broken up for its lumber, since it could not go back up river. Of course, a keelboat could be built relatively cheaply and only had to last one trip. The advantages of steamboats over keelboats was very obvious to the river men of the day: they could be used for more than one trip and they could go both downriver and upriver. This awareness that it was "steamboat time" soon created one of the largest commercial fleet of boats in the entire world.
We are in a similar situation today with access to space. After over 50 years of launching payloads into space with expendable rockets, which can only make a single trip up into space before they are destroyed, several companies are quickly approaching the day when their rockets can return to Earth to be used again, just like an airliner. Reusable rockets are like the 21st century version of steamboats in the annals of transportation and the human imagination.
One of the logical fallacies that is used to support continued use of the existing expendable rockets is the idea that a large enough artificial market for launches would bring down the launch prices for the expendable to the point where space commerce could flourish. This leads to the request for a huge government-funded launch program that supposedly will bring down the cost of launches. It should be obvious that the use of thousands of large expendable rockets over nearly 60 years has not led to cheap rocket launches. The very deliberate push by Elon Musk and others to develop reusable rockets has finally produced the technological innovation that will soon give us that critical capability.
Another historical analogy may explain why the "large enough" market fallacy is false for transportation in many cases. Before the Erie Canal was built, there was no practical way for goods such as grain to be shipped from the new agricultural lands in Ohio and Pennsylvania to Eastern cities. It could take weeks for a single wagon load of grain to reach Albany from Buffalo, along horribly muddy and dangerous roads. A large, expensive team of horses was needed to pull the single heavy wagon over the roads, up and down hill after hill, and out of mud holes.
Assume that the New York State government had hired thousands of teams of horses and wagons, and set them to haul freight from Buffalo to Albany for a very low cost, in an attempt to reduce the commercial cost of transporting such goods. The makers of freight wagons would make a fortune, but the roads would deteriorate, and when the program was over, the freight cost would still be very high. There was no effort to improve roads between cities until much later.
Instead, forward thinking men like DeWitt Clinton got the state to put teams of horses and men busy building the Erie Canal. When the canal opened in 1825, the cost of freight between Buffalo and Albany went down by a factor of about 100, according to many historians and economists. The reason was the technological innovation that let a single horse and two people move a very large boatload of goods along the canal. The friction of boat with water was so low that only a single horse was needed to keep it moving along the level canal, and the steady, slow movement of the canal boats added up mileage quickly. This quickly made the US a grain exporting country, since farmers in the Midwest could now ship their grain, cotton, and other goods not only to New York City, but from there to any country. Once rail locomotives and tracks were improved, the moving friction of freight was reduced still further, and with steel wheels on steel tracks and no water to cause increased friction at high speed, rail speeds were able to far exceed canal speeds. This reduced transport costs and time still further.
| The very deliberate push by Elon Musk and others to develop reusable rockets has finally produced the technological innovation that will soon give us that critical capability. |
The most visible current disagreement between proponents of reusable and expendable rockets is the controversy over the SLS, paradoxically a rocket that does not actually yet exist. Sometimes hard numbers will finally get people to look at the real world situation. So to compare apples to apples, we can set up a comparison between the expendable SLS, which Congress is forcing NASA to fund, and a reusable Falcon XX (or whatever SpaceX will call their HLV when it is finally unveiled.)
Let us assume for the moment that both rockets can deliver about the same 130 metric tons of payload to low Earth orbit (LEO), and that the Falcon XX is fully reusable, with a first stage that lands like the Grasshopper and an upper stage that can drop itself out of orbit and survive reentry with thermal protection, just like a large Dragon capsule. All stages of the SLS are expendable, which means they either smash into the ocean at high speed and are destroyed by the impact, or burn up during reentry.
Let us also assume that somehow NASA has the money to fund eight SLS launches a year, instead of the currently planned one every two to four years, even though no payloads or missions currently are funded for such a large number of launches. This would mean an SLS production rate increase of 16 to 32 times. It would also mean adding four times more equipment to produce the SLS rocket stages than currently is planned. The larger launch rate would mean that the roughly $30 billion development cost of the SLS (up to the year 2030), and the annual pad maintenance and launch crew costs, could be pro-rated among a larger number of launches. We will also assume a period of two decades of launches of eight per year for each rocket, or 160 launches.
We will assume that the SpaceX development cost for the Falcon XX is $5 billion based on the estimated development cost for the Falcon 9 and the $2.5 billion cost stated for an expendable version by Elon Musk in 2011, and will assume that each rocket will cost about $250 million to build, based on the stated launch price for the same expendable rocket of $300 million. The fuel costs are assumed to be the same, while the higher SLS pad cost reflects the innovations that SpaceX has created to reduce pad and launch operational costs. No official cost per SLS has yet been published by NASA, but the value of $1 billion is about three times that of the Delta IV Heavy, even though the projected SLS payload is five times greater. We assume the annual facilities maintenance and launch team costs are $1 billion per year for the SLS and $80 million per year for the Falcon XX, based upon the very lean pad facilities used by SpaceX. We will also assume that the Falcon XX can be used at least 25 times.
Comparison of SLS and Falcon XX (using estimated cost values)
This table lets us compare the launch costs, per launch and per pound. The SpaceX rocket values are educated guesses with upper limits partly constrained by the posted launch prices of existing SpaceX launchers. No official launch cost estimates have ever been released by NASA. Note that the launch costs do not include the cost of the payloads.
| Vehicle: | SLS (low estimate) | Falcon XX |
| Construction cost per rocket | $1,000,000,000 | $10,000,000 (share) |
| Pro-rated development cost share | $187,000,000 | $31,000,000 |
| Pro-rated annual facility maintenance | $125,000,000 | $10,000,000 |
| Fuel cost per launch (roughly) | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 |
| Pad operations per launch | $5,000,000 | $1,000,000 |
| Total cost per launch | $1,318,000,000 | $53,000,000 |
An SLS launch thus costs about 25 times more than a Falcon XX launch if eight are launched each year. Cost for the SLS at eight launches per year is $10.1 million per metric ton and $4,580 per pound, comparable to most current commercial launch rates. A high launch rate without technological improvement does not cut costs. Cost for the Falcon XX is about $400,000 per metric ton and $185 per pound, which is again about 1/25 of the cost of current commercial launches other than the SpaceX Falcon 9. Cost for 8 launches per year would be $10.5 billion for the SLS and $424 million for the Falcon XX. One year's worth of launches would place 1040 metric tons of payload in LEO. We anticipate that the SpaceX launch costs will continue to decline after reusability is achieved, as the program of continuous improvement at SpaceX continues.
A more realistic scenario came from a recent online discussion of Garver's radio show appearance. That discussion cited a 2011 article about HLV development costs. That articles suggests that the cost of each SLS rocket will be closer to $2.5 billion, and then only if they are purchased in bulk – 18 at a time.
Here is a table based on this logic that ignores the planned gaps in launches for the next decade and also does not include the cost of the payload:
| Vehicle: | SLS (high estimate) |
| Construction cost per rocket | $2,500,000,000 |
| Pro-rated development cost share | $187,000,000 |
| Pro-rated annual facility maintenance | $125,000,000 |
| Fuel cost per launch (roughly) | $1,000,000 |
| Pad operations per launch | $5,000,000 |
| Total cost per launch | $2,818,000,000 |
Now the cost for the SLS is $21.7 million per metric ton and $8,831 per pound, close to the estimated cost of a Delta IV Heavy launch, and its cost is now 48 times more than the Falcon XX.
| Without adopting the reusable rockets, NASA will be left in the Apollo era, able to do little more than stunt missions with human crews, due to the continuing high expense of moving mass into orbit. |
Assume that the US wanted to build logistics bases both in LEO and the Earth-Moon L1 point to create a cislunar transport system. We will assume that this effort would require 5,000 tons of equipment and space vehicles taken to LEO and half of that also delivered to the L1 point. We will allocate 1,000 tons for the LEO base, 2,500 tons for the larger L1 logistics base, and 1,500 tons of propellant to reach L1 from LEO. Once this base is set up, it could support the creation of a lunar polar propellant plant since it is only 12 hours flight time from any point on the Moon. To launch 1,000 tons per year requires 7.7 launches a year at 130 tons per launch, close to the eight launches specified earlier.
Which rocket can make such a plan affordable? The cost of launching this much mass in to LEO over a roughly five-year period starting after 2020 would be:
SLS (low est) $1.3 billion each: $50.5 billion dollars or $10.1 billion each year.
SLS (high est) $2.8 billion each: $108.5 billion dollars or $21.7 billion each year.
Falcon XX: $2.0 billion dollars or $400 million per year.
Notice that the Falcon XX launch cost for this operation is comparable to the current cost of paying the Russians to ferry our crews to the space station each year, while the low SLS cost is almost two-thirds of NASA's entire annual budget, and the high estimate exceeds its budget by over $4 billion. We cannot know the actual cost of an SLS operation since no launch cost has been posted. The only comparable costs would be if we were using a fleet of expendable cargo aircraft, which were thrown away after each cargo flight to a distant shore due to lack of aviation fuel at the destination.
These calculations make it clear that using an expendable SLS is not affordable, and that using the reusable Falcon XX is easily affordable. Without adopting the reusable rockets, NASA will be left in the Apollo era, able to do little more than stunt missions with human crews, due to the continuing high expense of moving mass into orbit. The reusable rocket solves that problem, and allows us to conduct high mass missions that will allow real space development. We should rejoice that a solution to this long standing barrier to space is not just on the horizon, but is now close at hand. Let's get on the steamboat and ride. The "bandwagon" for the reusable rocket is on its way.
Four more years
The US announces plans to extend the life of the ISS to at least 2024. Will its international partners follow suit?
Jeff Foust – The Space Review
While Washington politics is often criticized for short-term thinking, it does have some ability to look to the (relatively) long term. Since last year, there's been plenty of discussion about 2016; specifically, who might decide to run for President and what their chances of winning the White House might be, even though the first primaries and caucuses are still two years away. That was certainly the case last week, as pundits weighed the effects of events on the as-yet-unannounced candidacies of various political figures.
However, there was also some very long-term thinking Washington this week: not about 2016 or 2020, but instead 2024. The Obama Administration announced Wednesday its intent to extend the life of the International Space Station (ISS), who the partner nations have agreed to operate to 2020, to at least 2024. That additional four years—with the option to further extend it to perhaps 2028—is designed to give space agencies, other researchers, and commercial transportation operators more time to access the station. However, that decision is a moot point if the international partners don't agree to keep the station running as well.
Creating a ten-year planning horizon
The administration's announcement was timed to coincide with the International Space Exploration Forum, a closed-door meeting of the heads of more than 30 space agencies around the world held Thursday at the State Department in Washington. However, the administration had to move up their announcement by a day when news of the proposed extension leaked to the Orlando Sentinel, which reported the news Tuesday night.
| "It's allowing us to have a planning horizon really ten years long," said Gerstenmaier. "That really the changes the way folks see their investment" in station operations. |
In a brief, hastily arranged teleconference with reporters midday Wednesday, NASA officials confirmed those reports. Later in the day, NASA administrator Charles Bolden and White House Office of Science and Technology Policy director John Holdren issued a joint statement that formally announced the administration's decision to seek an extension of the ISS to 2024.
In their statement, Bolden and Holdren outlined several reasons for the decision. Those reasons included performing research and technology demonstrations to support human missions beyond Earth orbit, extending "the broader flow of societal benefits" of other research performed on the station, and better supporting the business cases for companies transporting cargo and, later, crew to and from the station by creating demand for additional flights. "The Obama Administration's decision to extend its life until at least 2024 will allow us to maximize its potential, deliver critical benefits to our Nation and the world, and maintain American leadership in space," they wrote of the ISS in their statement.
Agreeing to operate the station to at least 2024 also provides a long-term commitment that NASA officials believe can make it easier for potential users of the station to perform research there. "It's allowing us to have a planning horizon really ten years long," Bill Gerstenmaier, NASA associate administrator for human exploration and operations, said in Wednesday's media teleconference. "That really the changes the way folks see their investment" in station operations.
That decision is at least a partial victory for space station advocates, who had been pressing for a decision on an extension for some time (see "Asking the big questions for the next ten years", The Space Review, February 11, 2013). Studies last year examined the potential of extending the ISS out as far as 2028, when the station's oldest modules turned 30 years old, while NASA and others, like the Center for the Advancement of Science in Space (CASIS), sought to increase use of the station to demonstrate why its life should be extended.
While last week's announcement only offered a four-year extension, Gerstenmaier said the recent engineering studies showed the station could operate out to 2028. "We did a very rigorous analysis" that the station could operate until 2028, he said in Wednesday's call. "The hardware can last until 2028." Extending it four years, though, he added, "opened the horizon enough that we could get the benefit from the decision" while leaving the door open for a further extension down the road.
John Shannon, Boeing's program manager for the ISS, concurred with that technical assessment. "The vast majority of structural and mechanical components clear easily the 2028 timeframe," he told reporters at a media breakfast Wednesday morning in Arlington, Virginia, about a space exploration conference tied to the international forum. That assessment, which focused on the US segment of the station, was completed and delivered to NASA last fall. A few structural elements, such as the P6 truss segment, are the subject of additional finite element model analysis, but Shannon said in general "there are no issues out to 2028."
| "Keeping ISS flying—and continuing the important research that goes on there—means taxpayers get more bang for the buck from this unique laboratory," said Mikulski. |
Whether the administration seeks to extend the ISS to 2024 or to 2028, that decision will require the support of Congress. In Wednesday's teleconference, David Weaver, head of communications for NASA, said the agency started reaching out to key members of the House and Senate on Tuesday. "Anecdotally, I understand the reaction has been positive," he said.
And, indeed, several key members of Congress publicly expressed their support for the decision. "I applaud the decision to extend the operations of the International Space Station," Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said in a statement Wednesday. "Keeping ISS flying—and continuing the important research that goes on there—means taxpayers get more bang for the buck from this unique laboratory."
Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), chairman of the space subcommittee of the Senate Commerce Committee, also endorsed the extension, citing the benefits of continued ISS operations for Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in his state. "This means more jobs at the Kennedy Space Center as we rebuild our entire space program," he said in a brief video message provided by his office. "This is a robust future for KSC and our space program."
In the House, two top Democrats on the House Science Committee offered a more nuanced statement of support for the decision. "I am pleased that the Administration is initiating an important dialogue with its international partners on the extension of ISS operations to at least 2024," said Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-TX), ranking member of the full committee, in a statement. "I look forward to further details on the Administration's proposal and on the planned priorities and objectives for ISS activities during the proposed extension."
Rep. Donna Edwards (D-MD), ranking member of the committee' space subcommittee, offered a similar sentiment. "I support the Administration's initiative to propose extending ISS operations and utilization to at least 2024," she said in the same statement, but added that "we will need to ensure that any decision to extend ISS is accompanied by the necessary resources so that NASA's other important missions in science, aeronautics, and human exploration are not impacted adversely."
Republican members of Congress were more taciturn about the extension, but at least one key GOP member backed it. "It's inevitable and I'm delighted that NASA understands the value of ensuring that America continues to hold the high ground," Rep. John Culberson (R-TX), the vice chair of the subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee that funds NASA, told the Washington Post. Terminating the station "would be like General Meade handing over Little Round Top voluntarily… to the Chinese."
Getting the partners on board
Even with that Congressional support, though, the administration's decision is meaningless unless the international partners—Russia, Japan, Canada, and member states of the European Space Agency (ESA)—also agree to continue operating the station beyond 2020. While most partners expressed an interest in using the station beyond 2020, getting them to formally agree and commit the necessary resources to do so is a process that could take years.
The formal summary of Thursday's closed forum, in carefully crafted if diplomatically vague language, shed little light on interest in operating the ISS beyond 2020. "As part of this common vision for space exploration, ISEF participants recognized the importance of the International Space Station (ISS) as the largest, most complex international scientific and engineering project in history," it stated. The summary added that "the ISS partners encouraged expanded international access to this unprecedented facility, and noted its continuing value to future exploration endeavors."
However, at a follow-on meeting Friday in Washington, the Heads of Space Agencies Summit, organized by the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA), representatives of a number of partner nations expressed support for the concept of extending the ISS beyond 2020.
| "We have a fantastic tool with the space station," said Le Gall. "This is why the decision taken by NASA to extend the duration of the station until 2024 is a very good decision." |
"I think it's a positive sign of what the space station can do, and it's also in line with how we, nationally, have been thinking about the future of the space station," said Aleksy Krasnov, director of human spaceflight for the Russian space agency Roscosmos, during one of several panel sessions during Friday's meeting. "We will be working nationally to extend our elements. Technically, there is no showstopper to use it until 2028."
"I think the extension is quite a good message," said Enrico Saggese, president of the Italian space agency ASI. The extension, he said, would allow more time to get a return on investment on the research activities ASI and other European nations are performing on the station's Columbus module, provided by ESA. Extending the ISS to 2024 sends "a very good message," he said.
"We have a fantastic tool with the space station," said Jean-Yves Le Gall, president of the French space agency CNES, also citing the research potential of the ISS. "This is why the decision taken by NASA to extend the duration of the station until 2024 is a very good decision."
At Wednesday's media breakfast, Johann-Dietrich Wörner, head of the German space agency DLR, also expressed his support for an ISS extension even before it was formally announced by NASA. "Germany was always saying that we should use the International Space Station until 2020 and beyond," he said.
While nations expressed support for extending the ISS, getting them to back those statements up with funding may be far more challenging. Wörner noted that while Germany is the biggest contributor to ESA's share of ISS operation costs, other member states are more reticent to participate. "Some of the member states are reducing their financial support due to the financial crisis, and we are now in a very complicated discussion process at ESA concerning the ISS in the future."
For ESA, the next major milestone in the decision-making process regarding the ISS extension will likely not be until after a ministerial meeting in December, said Thomas Reiter, director of human spaceflight for the agency, at a press conference at the end of Friday's summit. That meeting, he said, will be focused on securing funding on continuing operations to 2020. "Once we have done this, then it is the right time to discuss how we are continuing beyond 2020," he said.
Reiter indicated that any decision by ESA to support ISS operations beyond 2020 may be tied to Europe's role in human exploration plans beyond Earth orbit. In 2012, ESA agreed to develop the service module for NASA's Orion spacecraft in lieu of building additional ISS cargo spacecraft as its contribution to ISS operations. "The decision on how to proceed beyond 2020 very largely depends on further scenarios on how will we go beyond low Earth orbit, how will we do it in the next decade."
Naoki Okumura, president of the Japanese space agency JAXA, suggested he was taken by surprise by the US decision. "As far as JAXA is concerned, we first learned about the US intention to extend the ISS to 2024 yesterday," Okumura, speaking through a translator, said at Friday's press conference. JAXA, like the other ISS partners, has only committed to ISS operations to 2020, and he said JAXA would soon start discussions in the Japanese government about a further extension.
Even the Russians indicated there would be some fiscal challenges with any extension of the ISS beyond 2020. "Policywise, it will take some effort to adjust resources that will be associated with space station operations," said Krasnov. Other Russian officials at the summit said they're working on a plan for the Russian space program covering the period of 2015 to 2026, and would seek to incorporate extended ISS operations into that program.
| "It is highly unlikely that any of us are going to be willing to go through the process of increasing the partnership by going back and opening up the treaty," Bolden said. |
That uncertainty among the partners raises the possibility that one or more of them could decide not to continue ISS operations beyond 2020. On Wednesday, Gerstenmaier indicated NASA was prepared should a partner drop out in 2020. "We're prepared to do what we have to do if the partners choose to take a different path," he said. He declined to speculate what would happen if only Russia joined the US on the station post-2020 beyond that, technically, the two countries alone could operate the station. "I fully intend our partners to see the benefit and be there with us in the future."
"We could continue to operate the station, but that's not the intent," Bolden said at Friday's press conference when asked a similar question. "If it gets to the point where it's the US and Russia operating the International Space Station, it's not much of an international space station."
Some suggested the extension opened the possibility of expanding the ISS partnership by including other nations. Wörner recalled Wednesday that when he was interviewed by the Augustine Committee in 2009, he recommended that the ISS partnership be expanded, specifically suggesting China and India. He didn't expect the matter to come up during Thursday's official forum, but that "we should be open to combining our forces."
At Friday's summit, Xu Dazhe, the new head of China's space agency CNSA, said he was "very happy" to hear about plans to extend the ISS, but not because China was interested in participating in that project. He said that China has plans to develop its own space station, to be completed between 2018 and 2022. With the ISS continuing into the 2020s "we will have a companion up there," he said through a translator.
Bolden, though, appeared to rule out any formal expansion of the ISS partnership. "It is highly unlikely that any of us are going to be willing to go through the process of increasing the partnership by going back and opening up the treaty," he said, citing the difficultly of putting together the original partnership agreement. "It was painful, and no one wants to do that again." Instead, he said partner nations are encouraged to make their own agreements with other nations who seek to participate in some way on the ISS, such as by flying an experiment or other payload.
While last week's announcement is seen as a major milestone for the ISS, even NASA officials know it is only the start of a process that will take much longer to complete as the other partners decide whether or not to continue on the ISS beyond 2020. "They'll continue to evaluate that over the next several years," Gerstenmaier said Wednesday. "I think in general they see this as a positive step that we're moving forward."
And the decision has political implications in the US as well. One observer noted that budget proposals submitted by the White House typically look out over the next five years. The fiscal year 2017 budget proposal, the last to be submitted by the Obama Administration, in early 2016, would thus include projections out to fiscal year 2021—the first year after the 2020 end of the ISS previously agreed to. A projected end of the ISS then could prove awkward, particularly for any Democratic candidates seeking to run on the administration's record on space policy. Announcing plans to extend the ISS to 2024 smoothes over that bump, even if the international partners haven't signed up for the extension in the next two years.
Such projections, though, have little significance, particularly when a new administration will take over in a year. The successor to the Obama Administration likely will revisit the administration's space policy, including that decision to seek to extend the ISS until at least 2024. In the end, long-term political planning could trump even longer-term space planning.
Tapping into the IT cloud crowd
Matthew Wall – BBC News
Two heads are better than one, they say. Well, how about 600,000?
That's how many designers and programmers you have on tap when you use a crowdsourcing service such as Appirio.
Welcome to the crowd in the cloud. It's like tapping into the collective consciousness of Star Trek's Borg cybernetic aliens.
In theory, the work you get back can be better quality, lower-cost, and delivered much faster than if you went through the traditional service provider tendering process.
When US space agency Nasa needed to develop a mobile application to help astronauts track their food intake while on International Space Station (ISS) missions, it threw the challenge out to Appirio's army of developers, in the belief that a problem shared is a problem halved.
The result was the Nasa ISS Food Intake Tracker (Fit), "the world's furthest-out field service app", as Appirio co-founder Narinder Singh describes it.
Nasa wanted an app that could help astronauts combat the bone density and muscle loss associated with working for long periods in microgravity, by making it easier for them to record what they eat.
The app needed to accommodate voice and single-click data entry for ease of use, as the existing weekly Food Frequency Questionnaire was proving too unreliable and insufficiently detailed, Nasa said.
Competition and collaboration
Nasa and Appirio's subsidiary, TopCoder, broke up the project into different time-limited stages - conceptualisation, idea generation, screen design, architecture, assembly and finally "bug hunt" - and invited developers to compete for the top prize at each stage.
About 7,000 developers contributed to the app in some shape or form, says Mr Singh, with the winners of each stage earning up to $1,800 (£1,300), plus a reliability bonus of a few hundred dollars on top.
The final prototype is now being tested on the ISS.
Appirio's business model is based on the apparently paradoxical combination of competition and collaboration. Clients subscribe to the service and put projects out for tender via this hi-tech marketplace.
Developers compete for the work, but their efforts are peer-reviewed. The best work wins the gig - and the money.
"There is a risk of the developers getting nothing," Mr Singh admits, "but others can look at your work and you may get other offers on the back of it."
Appirio, which raised $60m in venture capital funding from General Atlantic and Sequoia, has clients ranging from large media companies, such as Comcast, to old-school manufacturers such as Otis Elevator and Cessna, the light aircraft maker.
'Giving away the crown jewels'
The phenomenon of large, distributed groups coming up with better answers than individuals working on the same problem was explored in James Surowiecki's 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few.
The advent of high-speed broadband and cloud-based computing has made this process much easier to manage, and a number of crowdsourcing agencies have sprung up to exploit the trend.
But there is a natural scepticism about the concept, says Dave Coplin, chief envisioning officer for Microsoft UK.
"One main question for businesses will be: How can we be sure we're not giving away our crown jewels when we put this kind of work out to tender? Then there are concerns over service-level agreements and quality control.
"And thirdly, there is still this sense of empire in the IT community, with IT chiefs wanting to retain control of all aspects of their business processes."
But he believes all these objections can be overcome if companies are sufficiently open and progressive in their culture.
'Living, breathing database'
While the web has long facilitated online marketplaces - Elance, for example - where professionals can tout for publicly advertised work, these are morphing into more sophisticated service providers in their own right, thanks to the growing trend towards crowdsourcing.
Spiceworks, for instance, is a social network of 4.5 million IT professionals around the world that offers free tools to help them do their jobs and a place to share experiences and expertise.
But it also offers "Spicepanels" and "Made in Spiceworks" services, through which companies can crowdsource an entire product development process from concept to implementation.
Jay Hallberg, the company's co-founder and chief operating officer, says: "This is the largest living, breathing database on the planet.
"Our IT pros community now helps companies design and test their products - we've become their first destination when they want to go to market."
Microtasking
CrowdFlower, whose clients include large companies such as eBay, Autodesk and Unilever, specialises in microtasking - dividing up large, complex data projects into manageable units of work, that can then be farmed out to its five million-strong global army of workers.
It offers the platform to allow companies to do this directly, as well as a managed service.
"I think there is a definite trend towards microtasking," says Microsoft's Dave Coplin. "If most of the coding or inputting is fairly basic, the job can be split up into lots of smaller packages and put out to tender on a crowdsourcing website.
"There is a growing market in managing this process and ensuring quality."
Rob Bryant, lead partner in Deloitte's technology consulting practice, agrees, but adds a note of caution: "Lots of organisations are trying this type of crowdsourcing approach. But the Achilles heel at the moment is that you don't know the quality of work you're getting.
"A number of the platforms have recognised this and have introduced quality control as part of the service."
While we may still be a long way from seeing entirely distributed, cloud-based, crowdsourced businesses, having geeks on tap is proving an increasingly attractive option for a growing number of businesses.
SpaceX snags deal to launch Japanese telecom satellite
Stephen Clark – Spaceflight Now
Fresh off back-to-back launches of commercial communications satellites, SpaceX has booked a Japanese payload for a Falcon 9 flight in late 2015 likely to be launched from Cape Canaveral.
The launch contract award for JCSAT 14, a communications satellite owned by Tokyo-based SKY Perfect JSAT Corp., adds another mission to SpaceX's backlog, which stands at nearly 50 missions worth nearly $5 billion, according to a company press kit.
SpaceX announced the deal Friday. Financial terms were not disclosed by SpaceX or SKY Perfect JSAT.
The contract is the first new mission added to the Falcon 9 manifest since the rocket flew two successful flights to geostationary transfer orbit Dec. 3 and Jan. 6 with the SES 8 and Thaicom 6 communications satellites.
Geostationary transfer orbit is the drop-off point for most telecom payloads. JCSAT 14 will be delivered to such an orbit when it launches in the second half of 2015.
According to SpaceX's manifest published on the firm's website, JCSAT 14 would be the 10th geostationary transfer orbit mission on the Falcon 9's schedule.
"SpaceX looks forward to working with SKY Perfect JSAT on this mission," said Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president and chief operating officer. "As Asia's largest satellite operator, we appreciate JSAT's confidence in our ability to reliably deliver their satellite to orbit."
Emily Shanklin, a SpaceX spokesperson, said the launch of JCSAT 14 will "most likely" originate from the Falcon 9 launch site at Cape Canaveral, Fla. But she said the launch agreement allows for an alternate mutually agreed upon site.
SpaceX is working on plans for a new commercial launch base, most likely in South Texas, but the company has not said when the facility would be ready.
Built by Space Systems/Loral of Palo Alto, Calif., JCSAT 14 will meet growing demand in the Asia-Pacific with a payload of 26 C-band and 18 Ku-band transponders. The spacecraft will serve SKY Perfect JSAT's broadcast and data network customers and offer high-speed connectivity for mobile users, such as ships and airplanes, and the oil and gas exploration market.
JCSAT 14 will succeed and replace JCSAT 2A, which launched in March 2002, according to the Japanese operator.
Manned Mission to Mars By 2030s Is Really Possible, Experts Say
Sending humans to Mars by the 2030s is affordable, a group of experts finds, but some key changes are needed if it is going to happen.
A workshop group of more than 60 individuals representing more than 30 government, industry, academic and other organizations has found that a NASA-led manned mission to Mars is feasible if the space agency's budget is restored to pre-sequestration levels. Putting the first humans on the Red Planet would also require international cooperation and private industry support.
There is a growing consensus among the space community that a manned mission to Mars should be a priority worth working toward in the coming years, according to Chris Carberry the executive director of Explore Mars Inc., the organization that hosted the workshop with the American Astronautical Society.
"To be able to make it feasible and affordable, you need a sustainable budget," Carberry told SPACE.com. "You need a budget that is consistent, that you can predict from year to year and that doesn't get canceled in the next administration." Budget issues
While Carberry said that it is possible to launch a manned mission to Mars by the 2030s under pre-sequestration budget levels, a NASA-led human mission to Mars will probably never launch under current budgetary constraints, Carberry said.
"We're not far off from what we need," Carberry said. "We just need to get back into a reasonable budget, which we're not in right now."
President Barack Obama requested about $17.7 billion for NASA during his 2013 budget proposal, $59 million less than what the space agency received in 2012.
"[NASA] funds are divided between various missions, directorates and centers," Carberry said via email. "Unless there was a MAJOR restructuring, it would be hard to accomplish a NASA-led Mars mission [under the current budget]. That said, major disruptive technology gains could always occur that could make it viable — we just can't count on that happening."
From now until the 2030s
The workshop group's plan hinges partially upon the availability of NASA's heavy-lifting rocket, the Space Launch System, and the space agency's deep space crew capsule, the Orion spacecraft. SLS and Orion are both in development now, with Orion's first unmanned test flight slated for later this year.
In December 2013, attendees affiliated with NASA, Boeing, Orbital Sciences Corp. and many others at the Affording Mars Workshop arrived at six agreements that could frame the way that space agencies work toward a manned mission to Mars. They are:
- The goal of sending humans to Mars is affordable with the right partnerships (international, commercial/industrial, intergovernmental, etc.), commitment to efficiency, constancy of purpose and policy/budget consistency.
- Human exploration of Mars is technologically feasible by the 2030s.
- Mars should be the priority for human spaceflight over the next two to three decades.
- Between now and 2030, investments and activities in the human exploration of space must be prioritized in a manner that advances the objective of initial human missions to Mars beginning in the 2030s.
- Utilizing the International Space Station, including international partnerships, is essential for human missions to deep space.
- Continuation of robotic precursor missions to Mars throughout the 2020s is essential for the success of human missions to Mars.
Carberry said that the experts are still not sure whether a long or short mission to the Red Planet would be best when launching the first manned mission to Mars.
Getting to Mars
As a model of international collaboration and a huge undertaking in space, the International Space Station (ISS) could provide vital lessons about getting humans to Mars, Carberry said. The space station mission, which has been newly extended through 2024, is the best example of a consistent budget set forth for a huge project in space, he added.
"The only reason it [the International Space Station] has survived the years is because it's an international mission," Carberry said. "It is held together by international treaties and strong agreements … If we were to follow that model and maybe even move on with the partnership to the next step, that perhaps could be the greatest legacy of ISS because that's a proven model of sustainability, because you have more holding it together than just that annual cycle."
The $100 billion orbiting outpost could also be used to mimic parts of a mission to the Red Planet. Engineers could use the orbiting laboratory to demonstrate telerobotics and new spacesuits, and to work out possible problems that could arise on a trip to Mars.
Bridge mission
The workshop group also explored the idea of a mission that would bridge the space station and a manned mission to Mars. Agencies should consider such a bridge mission when moving forward toward a launch date in the 2030s, the workshop found.
The bridge mission could be anything from NASA's ambitious plan to capture an asteroid and bring it into lunar orbit where astronauts could explore it, to a small and temporary station where astronauts can learn a little more about fending for themselves while in space.
"When they're on ISS, they communicate [with Earth] every day — they can barely do anything without communicating with Mission Control," Carberry said. "They need to get out of the habit of that, and they know that."
Other missions
Private companies are planning their own trips to the Red Planet. Mars One is planning on sending a group of people to colonize the planet on a one-way mission in 2022. The company is also expected to send a lander to Mars in 2018.
The Inspiration Mars mission, now slated to launch in 2021, will launch a couple on a flyby of Mars. This private mission might be a good precursor mission before a full Martian landing, according to Carberry.
"There's an interesting window in 2021 where they would flip by Venus, which is relatively interesting itself," Carberry said. "If you have a crewed mission flying by Venus on the way to Mars, that's pretty impressive."
If the Inspiration Mars mission does launch in 2021, it may help scientists put human boots on Martian dirt by the 2030s, Carberry said.
END
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